[SchoolMatters] Enrollment Projections on the Rise Again

Mon Jan 2 11:50:37 EST 2006

FYI - I accidentally transposed the capacity numbers for Western and
Monticello in my PDF document.  I have updated that analysis of capacity in
the online version here:
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf (see page
6).

My apologies for the error! 

Brian Wheeler

  _____  

From: schoolmatters-bounces at listserv.bnsi.net
[mailto:schoolmatters-bounces at listserv.bnsi.net] On Behalf Of Brian Wheeler
Sent: Saturday, December 31, 2005 4:51 PM
To: schoolmatters at listserv.bnsi.net
Subject: [SchoolMatters] Enrollment Projections on the Rise Again

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
This message is not an official communication of the Albemarle County School
Board. It is a private, e-mail-only newsletter written by Brian Wheeler,
At-Large Member of the Albemarle County School Board. 
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

[Want to share some public comments on this message?  See the weblog version
here:
http://schoolmatters.typepad.com/my_weblog/2005/12/enrollment_proj_1.html ]

Albemarle County Public Schools released updated 5-year enrollment
projections last week.  In the 2010 school year, we are now projecting to
have 129 more students in our public schools, in the entire county, than we
have today.  Staff have warned the School Board that "projections that are 5
years into the future may have significant variance."  The previous 5 year
projection, which ended in 2009, showed a total gain of 20 students over 5
years.  Looking backwards over the previous 5 years at ACTUAL enrollment, we
have grown by 298 students between 2001 and 2005.

Now if you are really interested in these numbers, you may want to download
the PDF linked below which has most of the source data.  What follows is my
personal assessment of this data (not the school board's).

Analysis: http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf

Let's start by looking at ACTUAL recent enrollment changes over the span of
a single year:
* 2003 saw a decline of 1 student over previous year (1 year projection was
off by 69 students)
* 2004 saw growth of 106 students over previous year (1 year projection was
off by 16 students)
* 2005 saw growth of 81 students over previous year (1 year projection was
off by 65 students)
[Note: One-year projection error rates are about 1/2 a percentage point or
less, which is quite good in my book]

This process of projecting our enrollment reminds me of the 5-day cone of
probability for hurricane path projections.  Where will it make land fall?
You watch the Weather Channel and know a lot of smart people are looking at
a whole lot of data, yet the cone showing where it might hit land is
hundreds of miles wide.  Mother Nature.  Projecting enrollment it like that
too, a mix of art, science and, in this case, the human nature wildcard.

In the PDF linked above, I show the tracks of the past 5-year projections
and I added a "cone of probability" on the 2005 projection.  This is my own
invention and I calculate the "cone of probability" as a cumulative 1/2 a
percentage point error, plus or minus, on a given year's projection.  These
pictures give you a sense of the fluctuations that exist in our projections.

So recognizing the difficulty of making these projections, let's look at
what the current data on new housing, birth rates, and enrollment trends has
told our staff besides the fact that we will grow by 129 students.  Where
will we grow?  Of the eleven schools projected to be filled to 92% or
greater of capacity come 2010, six are the schools in the Western Albemarle
feeder pattern--that is ALL the schools in the Western Albemarle feeder
pattern. On page 6 of the PDF linked above you can see a table I made
showing how each County school is projected to look in 2010, sorted by %
capacity utilized, assuming no new construction or redistricting.  Crozet
Elementary tops the list at 125% over capacity.

Let's talk about development in Albemarle.  It is very difficult to predict
where families will move, whether they will chose public or private schools,
how fast certain developments will be built out, will the people that move
in just be moving from somewhere else in the County or coming from outside
Albemarle.  Upon seeing these enrollment projections however, I know my
constituents are going to ask about new developments like Old Trail Village
in Crozet or Belvedere Farm off Rio Road.  How many new students are
projected to come from those developments and isn't it more than the 129
additional students you are expecting?  I asked staff for student
projections from these developments this past August and here is what we
learned:

Old Trail Village = 476 students
Belvedere = 259 students (assuming 100% single-family detached housing type,
or "worst case")
TOTAL = 735 students 

So how can we look at that data and reconcile a 5-year projection that says
we will only be adding 129 students total in Albemarle County?  Good
question.  Frankly, I think our current 5-year projection will prove to be
low and we will end up with actuals in the higher portion of my "cone of
probability."  We also have to keep in mind the actual rate at which these
developments are built-out and people with school-aged children actually
move in is highly variable and can take many years.

Thanks Brian, but does it really matter?
Yes and no.  The School Board asks for 5 year enrollment projections to help
plan for where we need building capacity and to prepare for redistrictings.
We recently completed a county-wide redistricting that goes into effect Fall
2006.

The next major building projects that deal with capacity are as follows:
* Cale Elementary Expansion (in progress)
* Albemarle HS Renovation/Expansion (Projects starts in 2007)
* Red Hill Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Scottsville Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Elementary School #17 (Project starts in 2010, location TBD)
* Additional HS Capacity (Projects starts in 2011, location TBD) 
* Elementary School #18 (Project starts in 2014, location TBD)

As you can see, we will have lots of new data and projections in place
before these projects are started.  The projects may be adjusted in the
Capital Improvement Program based on recommendations from staff and the Long
Range Planning Committee.

Do the enrollment numbers matter when it comes to the budget?
When we start preparing the 2006-07 budget, we will use as our guide the
ACTUAL September 30, 2005 enrollment number of 12,348 and a projection for
next year only. That 1-year projection gets us through the budget process.
However, if we get many fewer students in 2006 than we expect or a at a
given school the enrollment is off, we don't just spend the money budgeted.
Staffing formulas in our operational budget are based on 1-year projections
and we only expend funds based on ACTUAL enrollment.

Hope you find this interesting!  Brian Wheeler

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Brian Wheeler
 <mailto:bwheeler at albemarlematters.com> bwheeler at albemarlematters.com
 <http://www.wheeleronboard.com/> http://www.wheeleronboard.com

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