[StonyPointEagle] FW: [SchoolMatters] Enrollment Projections on the Rise Again

Mon Jan 2 07:49:54 EST 2006

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
This message is not an official communication of the Albemarle County
School Board. It is a private, e-mail-only newsletter written by Brian
Wheeler, At-Large Member of the Albemarle County School Board. 
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

[Want to share some public comments on this message?  See the weblog
version here:
http://schoolmatters.typepad.com/my_weblog/2005/12/enrollment_proj_1.htm
l ]

Albemarle County Public Schools released updated 5-year enrollment
projections last week.  In the 2010 school year, we are now projecting
to have 129 more students in our public schools, in the entire county,
than we have today.  Staff have warned the School Board that
"projections that are 5 years into the future may have significant
variance."  The previous 5 year projection, which ended in 2009, showed
a total gain of 20 students over 5 years.  Looking backwards over the
previous 5 years at ACTUAL enrollment, we have grown by 298 students
between 2001 and 2005.

Now if you are really interested in these numbers, you may want to
download the PDF linked below which has most of the source data.  What
follows is my personal assessment of this data (not the school board's).

Analysis: 
http://www.wheeleronboard.com/docs/20051231enrollment-analysis.pdf

Let's start by looking at ACTUAL recent enrollment changes over the span
of a single year:

* 2003 saw a decline of 1 student over previous year (1 year projection
was off by 69 students)

* 2004 saw growth of 106 students over previous year (1 year projection
was off by 16 students)

* 2005 saw growth of 81 students over previous year (1 year projection
was off by 65 students)

[Note: One-year projection error rates are about 1/2 a percentage point
or less, which is quite good in my book]

This process of projecting our enrollment reminds me of the 5-day cone
of probability for hurricane path projections.  Where will it make land
fall?  You watch the Weather Channel and know a lot of smart people are
looking at a whole lot of data, yet the cone showing where it might hit
land is hundreds of miles wide.  Mother Nature.  Projecting enrollment
it like that too, a mix of art, science and, in this case, the human
nature wildcard.

In the PDF linked above, I show the tracks of the past 5-year
projections and I added a "cone of probability" on the 2005 projection.
This is my own invention and I calculate the "cone of probability" as a
cumulative 1/2 a percentage point error, plus or minus, on a given
year's projection.  These pictures give you a sense of the fluctuations
that exist in our projections.

So recognizing the difficulty of making these projections, let's look at
what the current data on new housing, birth rates, and enrollment trends
has told our staff besides the fact that we will grow by 129 students.
Where will we grow?  Of the eleven schools projected to be filled to 92%
or greater of capacity come 2010, six are the schools in the Western
Albemarle feeder pattern--that is ALL the schools in the Western
Albemarle feeder pattern. On page 6 of the PDF linked above you can see
a table I made showing how each County school is projected to look in
2010, sorted by % capacity utilized, assuming no new construction or
redistricting.  Crozet Elementary tops the list at 125% over capacity.

Let's talk about development in Albemarle.  It is very difficult to
predict where families will move, whether they will chose public or
private schools, how fast certain developments will be built out, will
the people that move in just be moving from somewhere else in the County
or coming from outside Albemarle.  Upon seeing these enrollment
projections however, I know my constituents are going to ask about new
developments like Old Trail Village in Crozet or Belvedere Farm off Rio
Road.  How many new students are projected to come from those
developments and isn't it more than the 129 additional students you are
expecting?  I asked staff for student projections from these
developments this past August and here is what we learned:

Old Trail Village = 476 students

Belvedere = 259 students (assuming 100% single-family detached housing
type, or "worst case")

TOTAL = 735 students 

So how can we look at that data and reconcile a 5-year projection that
says we will only be adding 129 students total in Albemarle County?
Good question.  Frankly, I think our current 5-year projection will
prove to be low and we will end up with actuals in the higher portion of
my "cone of probability."  We also have to keep in mind the actual rate
at which these developments are built-out and people with school-aged
children actually move in is highly variable and can take many years.

Thanks Brian, but does it really matter?

Yes and no.  The School Board asks for 5 year enrollment projections to
help plan for where we need building capacity and to prepare for
redistrictings.  We recently completed a county-wide redistricting that
goes into effect Fall 2006.

The next major building projects that deal with capacity are as follows:

* Cale Elementary Expansion (in progress)

* Albemarle HS Renovation/Expansion (Projects starts in 2007)

* Red Hill Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Scottsville Elementary Addition/Renovation (Projects starts in 2008)
* Elementary School #17 (Project starts in 2010, location TBD)

* Additional HS Capacity (Projects starts in 2011, location TBD) 

* Elementary School #18 (Project starts in 2014, location TBD)

As you can see, we will have lots of new data and projections in place
before these projects are started.  The projects may be adjusted in the
Capital Improvement Program based on recommendations from staff and the
Long Range Planning Committee.

Do the enrollment numbers matter when it comes to the budget?

When we start preparing the 2006-07 budget, we will use as our guide the
ACTUAL September 30, 2005 enrollment number of 12,348 and a projection
for next year only. That 1-year projection gets us through the budget
process. However, if we get many fewer students in 2006 than we expect
or a at a given school the enrollment is off, we don't just spend the
money budgeted. Staffing formulas in our operational budget are based on
1-year projections and we only expend funds based on ACTUAL enrollment.

Hope you find this interesting!  Brian Wheeler

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Brian Wheeler
bwheeler at albemarlematters.com <mailto:bwheeler at albemarlematters.com> 
http://www.wheeleronboard.com <http://www.wheeleronboard.com/> 

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